A data-first recap across real estate, tourism, aviation, economy, and business growth — plus what to expect in 2026.
2025 Snapshot
2025 Recap
Below is a structured recap of Dubai’s 2025 performance across the major engines of demand and capital flow.
1) Real Estate
Sales value: AED 682.49B in 2025 (record).
Sales transactions: 214,912 in 2025.
Total real estate transactions value (sales + mortgages + gifts): AED 919B.
Total transactions: 275,442 in 2025.
H1 2025: total real estate transactions exceeded AED 431B and total transactions reached 125,538.
2) Tourism
International overnight visitors: 17.55M from January to November 2025 (+5% YoY).
3) Aviation
DXB passengers: 46M in the first half of 2025 (busiest H1 on record; +2.3% YoY).
4) Economy
Dubai GDP: AED 122B in Q2 2025 (+4.7% YoY).
H1 2025 growth: +4.4%.
5) Business Formation and Financial Services
Dubai Chamber of Commerce: 35,532 new member companies in H1 2025 (+4% YoY).
DIFC: 1,081 new active registered companies in H1 2025 (+32% YoY), taking active companies to 7,700 (+25% YoY).
2026 Outlook: What to Expect
2026 is widely expected to be more selective than 2024–2025. Most scenarios still point to activity, but with performance diverging sharply by location, developer track record, and product type.
Base Case: Slower growth, higher selectivity
Knight Frank’s Dubai Residential Market Review (Q3 2025) expects prime house prices to rise by around 3% in 2026.
Risk Case: Supply pressure and a correction window
Fitch Ratings has flagged a moderate correction in Dubai residential prices spanning 2H 2025 through 2026 (up to ~15% declines).
Upside Tailwind: Continued travel demand
DXB leadership projects 100M passengers in 2026, supporting consumption, business flows, and broader demand.
What to Watch in 2026 (Investor Checklist)
Delivery reality vs pipeline: actual handovers and absorption rates by submarket.
Rent vs affordability: where rents stay realistic, occupancy tends to remain stickier.
Off-plan resale temperature: a cooling resale share can signal shifting sentiment.
Quality filters: service charges, handover quality, community maturity, and resale liquidity.
Bottom line: 2026 looks less like a 'buy anything' market and more like a 'buy right' market. Projects with real end-user demand and proven developers are positioned to hold liquidity better if conditions tighten.
References
Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (DET). Tourism Performance Report: January–November 2025.
Dubai Airports. DXB marks busiest H1 with 46 million guests despite regional headwinds (July 2025).
Digital Dubai. Dubai’s GDP surges 4.7% to reach AED 122B in Q2 2025.
Dubai Chambers. Over 35,000 new companies joined during H1 2025.
Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). Best-ever performance for the first half of 2025.
Gulf News. Dubai property market closes 2025 with record Dh682.5B in sales.
Fitch Ratings. Dubai property prices to drop but issuers have rating buffers (May 2025).
Reuters. Dubai Airports projects 100M passengers in 2026 (July 2025).